Pandemic consequences and crisis recovery scenarios

Abstract

The global economy develops in completely new and unpredictable conditions due to the COVID-19 pandemic spread. The current COVID-19 crisis has changed the supply and demand ratio. Economic recovery requires the right macroeconomic policy to support national economies, maintain economic and financial relationships between workers and enterprises, creditors and borrowers, suppliers, and end consumers. Therefore, there is a challenge to minimize the influence of the long-term COVID-19 crisis to avoid irreparable damage to people and companies due to job losses and mass bankruptcies. This study aims to analyze the COVID-19 consequences and scenarios of economic recovery after the pandemic crisis. The study’s relevance is that the global economy needs significant behavioral, structural, and institutional changes to stabilize the system and form the basis for further development. The findings showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has become a trigger of devastating large-scale world economic imbalances. The authors noted that one of the combating methods against the pandemic spread was quarantine measures. However, the massive population isolation, limiting its mobility and economic activity, has created an extraordinary socio-economic situation. The authors conclude that pandemic significantly increased the demand for food delivery services since people preferred (or were forced) to stay at home. At the same time, people were apprehensive about coronavirus transmission through couriers. The prolonged quarantine has changed consumer behavior. Notably, the demand for such goods as cars and clothing decreased while increased for household products. Most developed and many developing countries have sacrificed their economies to defend the population. The authors concluded that the social changes caused by quarantine restrictions have divided the world into current and «post-COVID» and affect all global economic fields. The obtained results indicated the need to find new possibilities to simplify production and manage remote work. The study findings emphasize the need to find new possibilities to simplify production. Moreover, it is essential to establish links between manufacturers and economic systems under remote work.