Evaluating the Philippine Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2021

Abstract

After ratifying the Paris Agreement in March 2017, the Philippine Government reviewed its Nationally Determined Contribution that was submitted in October, 2015. This resulted in a revised NDC that was communicated to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 15 April 2021. The country commits to a projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction and avoidance of 75% referenced against a projected business as-usual (BAU) cumulative emission of 3,340.3 MtCO2e for the period 2020-2030. However, even if a significant part is conditional on financial assistance from multilateral agencies, the commitment is unrealistic given past trends in GHG emissions and projections under the Clean Energy Scenario of the Department of Energy. If the Philippine Government cannot adjust the NDC, it can improve prospects of compliance by considering a) the post-pandemic trend in GHG emissions, i.e. lower the BAU scenario; b) an expanded policy space that covers all sources of GHG emissions particularly the agriculture sector; and c) a more aggressive Clean Energy Scenario. Nevertheless, the Philippine Government should have been guided by the saying: “It is better to under-promise and over-deliver than to over-promise and under-deliver.”