The Role of Own-Group Density and Local Social Norms for Ethnic Marital Sorting: Evidence from the UK

Abstract

We present a structural marriage market model where individuals differ in ethnicity and qualifications, and where marital choices are affected by social conformity preferences. The model is estimated using White, Black and Asian individuals born in the UK between 1965 and 1989, and is identified from regional demographic variation. We find strong preferences for marital sorting both on ethnicity and qualifications. Black and Asian individuals are more likely to marry intra-ethnically in regions where the own ethnicity share is relatively large. We further find evidence of significant social conformity preferences, implying substantial variation in marital social norms. Using the estimated model, we make predictions for a set of more recent cohorts, born between 1990 and 2006, whose marital choices are still to be completed. Due to their increased population shares, the proportions of Black and Asian individuals marrying within their own ethnic group are expected to increase and this effect is amplified by endogenously changing equilibrium social norms.