Long-Term Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibody Responses After Infection and Estimates of the Duration of Protection

Abstract

The duration of immunity in SARS-CoV-2 infected people remains unclear. Neutralizing antibody responses are the best available correlate of protection against re-infection. Recent studies have estimated that the correlate of 50% protection from re-infection was 20% of the mean convalescent neutralizing antibody titre. We used sera collected from a cohort of 125 individuals with RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections up to 386 days after symptom onset. In the subset of 65 sera collected from day 151 to 386 after symptom onset, all remained positive in 50% plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNT50). Because antibody waning follows a bimodal pattern with slower waning beyond day 90 after illness, we fitted lines of decay to 115 sera from 62 patients collected beyond 90 after symptom onset and estimate that PRNT50 antibody will remain detectable for around 1,717 days after symptom onset and that 50% protective antibody titers will be maintained for around 990 days post-symptom onset, in symptomatic patients. Peak PRNT titres in mildly symptomatic children did not differ from those in mildly symptomatic adults but these antibody titres appear to wane faster in children. There was a high level of correlation between PRNT50 antibody titers and the % of inhibition in surrogate virus neutralization tests. We conclude that there will be relatively long-lived protection from re-infection following symptomatic COVID-19 disease. \n \nFunding Information: The study was supported by the Health and Medical Research Fund, Commissioned research on Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) (Reference no COVID190126) from the Food and Health Bureau, Hong Kong SAR Government and the Theme-based Research Scheme project no. T11-712/19-N, the University Grants Committee of the Hong Kong Government. \n \nDeclaration of Interests: None of the authors have any conflicts of interest to declare. \n \nEthics Approval Statement: Written informed consent was obtained from the participants or their parents (when the participant was a child) and the studies were approved by the institutional review boards of the respective hospitals, viz. Kowloon West Cluster (KW/EX-20-039 (144-27)), Kowloon Central / Kowloon East cluster (KC/KE-20-0154/ER2) and HKU/HA Hong Kong West Cluster (UW 20-273).