Hydrologic responses to climate change using downscaled GCM data on a watershed scale

Abstract

The changing climate has raised significant concerns for water resources, especially on a watershed scale. In this study, the downscaled global circulation model (GCM) products were further bias corrected and evaluated for the period of 1981–2099. Driven by the bias-corrected products, a calibrated Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was used to assess long-term hydrologic responses in the Lehman Creek watershed, eastern Nevada. The results of this study show: (1) the Parameter–elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) products offer a reliable replacement for limited observations for bias correction using quantile mapping (QM) technique; (2) average increases of 2.3 °C, 2.2 °C, and 35.1 mm in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation by the end of century; (4) an annual streamflow increase of 7.6%–11.6% with greatest increases in April and greatest decreases in June; (5) 20 days earlier-shift in annual peak flow – as indicated by the date of winter-spring center of volume – by the end of the century. For management of local water resources, this study provides a better understanding of variations in the streamflow rate and timing to a potential climate change in the study area as well as corresponding uncertainties in the estimation processes.