Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia

Abstract

\n Southeast Asia (SEA) is vulnerable to climate extremes due to its large and growing population, long coastlines with low-lying areas, reliance on agricultural sector developments. Here, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was employed to examine future climate change and drought in this region under two SSP–RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean projects a warming (wetting) of 1.99–4.29 °C (9.62–18.43%) in the 21st century. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at 12-month time scales (SPEI-12) displays moderate-to-severe dry conditions over all countries during the near-future period, then the wet condition is projected from mid-future to far-future periods. The projected drought characteristics show relatively longer durations, higher peak intensities, and more severities under SSP5-8.5, while the higher number of events are projected under SSP2-4.5. Overall, the SPEI-12 over SEA displays significant regional differences with decreasing dryness trend toward the 21st century. All these findings have important implications for policy intervention to water resource management under a changing climate over SEA.