Flattening the Curve: Development of a Sequential Mediation Model to Better Predict COVID-19 Preventive Behavior.

Abstract

BACKGROUND\nSince the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing, self-quarantining, wearing masks and washing hands have become part of the new norm for many, but not all. It appears that such preventive measures are critical to flattening the curve of the spread of the Coronavirus. The public s adoption of such behaviors, barring an effective vaccine or cure, is an essential component in the battle against what has been referred to as the invisible enemy .\n\n\nOBJECTIVE\nThe primary objective of the present study was to develop a model for predicting COVID-19 among US college students. The Health Belief Model (HBM) has a long history of use and empirical support in predicting preventive health behaviors but is not without its purported shortcomings. The present study identifies a more optimal, and defensible, combination of variables to explain preventive behaviors among college students. This segment of the US population is critical in helping slow the spread of the Coronavirus because of its relative reluctance to perform the needed behaviors given they do not feel susceptible or fearful of the COVID-19 disease.\n\n\nMETHODS\nA sample of 415 US college students were surveyed via Qualtrics and asked to answer questions regarding their fear of COVID-19, information receptivity (seeking relevant information), perceived knowledge of the disease, self-efficacy, and performance of preventive behaviors. The PROCESS Model 6 was used to test our conceptual model including predictions involving sequential mediation.\n\n\nRESULTS\nSequential mediation results show that fear of COVID-19 leads individuals to seek out information regarding the disease, which increases their perceived knowledge and fosters self-efficacy which is key to driving preventive behaviors.\n\n\nCONCLUSIONS\nSelf-imposed preventive measures can drastically impact the rate of infection among populations. Based upon the study s newly created sequential mediation model, communication strategies for encouraging COVID-19 preventive behaviors are offered. It is clear that college students, and very possibly adults of all ages, must have a healthy fear of COVID-19 to set in motion a process where concerned individuals seek COVID-19 related information, increasing their store of knowledge concerning the disease, enhancing their self-efficacy and ultimately their likelihood of performing the needed preventive behaviors.\n\n\nCLINICALTRIAL