Climate change impact on endangered cloud forest tree species in Mexico

Abstract

Ecological niche models have seen intensive exploration as a tool in biodiversity conservation and evaluation\xa0of areas for designing protected natural areas systems, including projections of potential distributions under future\xa0conditions. Cloud forest is the most endangered ecosystem in Mexico, and yet ranks high in terms of diversity and\xa0endemism. This study focuses on 12 endangered and range-restricted tree species in Mexican cloud forests, exploring\xa0patterns of distribution and diversity under 2 future emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5\xa0and 8.5) as anticipated by 20 general circulation models. Our results indicate a likely strong reduction in species’\xa0distributional areas and —consequently— species diversity manifested in different cloud forest patches across the\xa0country. The genus Quercus resulted the most sensitive to climate change. We identified cloud forest patches that\xa0are most vulnerable to climate change effects, which can and should focus priorities for protection of this ecosystem,\xa0particularly in the Sierra Madre Oriental, where cloud forest is presently lacking any protection.