Selecting suitable climate models for examining future changes in soil erosion and muddy flooding

Abstract

Climate models consistently project large increases in the frequency and\nmagnitude of extreme precipitation events in the 21st century, revealing\nthe potential for widespread impacts on various aspects of society.\nWhile the impacts on flooding receive particular attention, there is\nalso considerable damage and associated cost for other\nprecipitation–driven phenomena, including soil erosion and muddy\nflooding. Multiple studies have shown that climate change will worsen\nthe impacts of soil erosion and muddy flooding in various regions. These\nstudies typically drive erosion models with output from a single climate\nmodel or a few models with little justification. A blind approach to\nclimate model selection increases the risk of simulating a narrower\nrange of possible scenarios, limiting vital information for mitigation\nplanning and adaptation. This study provides a comprehensive methodology\nto efficiently select suitable climate models for simulating soil\nerosion and muddy flooding. For a study region in Belgium using the WEPP\nsoil erosion model, we compare the performance of our novel methodology\nagainst other model selection methods for a future period (2081–2100).\nThe main findings reveal that our methodology is successful in\ngenerating the widest range of future scenarios from a small number of\nmodels, compared with other selection methods. This represents a novel\ntargeted approach to climate model selection with respect to soil\nerosion by water but could be modified for other precipitation–driven\nimpact sectors. This will ensure a broad range of climate impacts are\nsimulated so the best- and worst-case scenarios can be adequately\nprepared for.