Ultra-short-term solar PV power forecasting based on cloud displacement vector using multi-channel satellite and NWP data

Abstract

Satellite cloud image data plays an important role in the ultra-short-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting. By calculating the cloud displacement vectors of two adjacent cloud images, it is possible to calculate the cloud cluster s occlusion of the PV power plant for a period of time in the future, thereby forecasting the PV power. The satellite cloud image data provided by FY-4A Satellite has large and unequal sampling time intervals, which brings difficulties to cloud displacement vector calculation. This paper proposes a method for calculating the displacement vector of the cloud edge block based on the cosine similarity and the adaptive adjustment of the matching spatial scale. The parameter equation is used to establish the relationship between the relative position of the cloud cluster and the PV plant over time, and to predict the future position. On this basis, this paper proposes an ultra-short-term forecasting method of PV power based on cloud displacement vector. The performance of the proposed model is verified through case analysis.