Thermo-mechanical and stratigraphic numerical forward modelling: recent advances and their joint application in the Pannonian Basin

Abstract

Basin analysis and subsidence history provide key insights into sedimentary basin forming mechanisms. Direct observations have long been the only source of information on their thermal and lithological architecture. State of the art modelling techniques today enable the prediction and computation of their formation and evolution constrained by geological field observations, geophysical and deep borehole data. Understanding the inherent connections between large-scale tectonic and local basin-scale surface processes requires the joint application of thermo-mechanical and stratigraphic modelling techniques. To this aim, we combined the thermo-mechanical lithospheric-scale numerical code Flamar and the high-resolution 3D deterministic stratigraphic software DionisosFlow. This joint modelling method quantifies forcing factors, such as crustal and lithospheric thinning, lithospheric flexure, sea-level and climatic variations associated with water and sediment influx and sediment compaction. The modelling shows the migration of extensional deformation in space and time creating deep half-grabens. After a rapid uplift event, the subsequent post-rift times are characterized by continuous kilometre-scale differential vertical movements. The modelled tectonic subsidence and uplift rates and half-graben geometries are imported into the 3D stratigraphic modelling code. Our modelling of a 120 km × 150 km area shows that such scenarios are associated with continental alluvial to shallow-water sedimentation and footwall erosion during the early stages of the syn-rift, followed by rapid deepening during the subsequent syn-rift evolution. Finally, the basins are filled by a large-scale prograding shelf-margin slope system during the post-rift times. We differentiate between unconformities caused by tectonics, sea-level variations or auto-cyclic processes. Our tectonic and stratigraphic results are compared with geological and geophysical constraints from the Pannonian Basin of Central Europe.