Оценка факторов и индикаторов, влияющих на циклическое развитие экономики Азербайджана

Abstract

We are proposing the results of economic development factors analysis, and there influence in forming and display of the economic cycles. The purpose of this article is to identify significant indicators of the cyclical development Azerbaijan economy for the capable of predicting and regulating phases of the onset of business cycle. Were checking 20 different indicators based by the annual data of the State Statistical Committee from 1998 to 2018. The relationship and influence of interest rates and the cyclical Azerbaijan economy development were examined. The methodological basis of this work became an analysis of such fundamental research data as papers IMF and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEI) of the United States. Scientific methods of our research were an indicator approach, complemented by a qualitative analysis and a correlation-regression analysis. The calculations were performed by the freely distributed modern software - the statistical environment R, the most dynamically developing program in its class. So acyclic, countercyclical, and pro-cyclic indicators were identified by us. The features of the influence of these indicators on cyclic development in modern conditions were identified, their significance was determined. It was concluded that the possibility of economic cycles forecasting by the various phases indicators contributes to the modeling of economic activity. The results of the research can be applied both to monitor the development of the Azerbaijan economy and to predict the onset of the corresponding economic phases with the aim of adapting and reducing crises’ negative impact at the micro and macro levels.