Ensemble Model of Precipitation Change Over Indonesia Caused by El Nino Modoki

Abstract

El Nino is known as climate disturbance which is indicated by the changing of sea surface temperature over the east Pacific Ocean. This is mainly caused by trade wind on equatorial pacific (Anderson, Perez & Karspeck, 2013). In the normal condition, trade wind is blowing from east (subtropical region) to west (around equator). However, every 2-7 years the trade wind will change its direction (Trenberth & Shea, 1987). This causes a distinct pattern of warm pool on east Pacific Ocean and cold pool on the west. The condition is recognized as El Nino. The opposite pattern of the warm pool and cold pool is also known as La Nina. Together, they are usually called as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Philander, 1983). The climate phenomenon that has been linked in many climate events around the world (Cai, et al., 2015), include some massive disasters. ENSO also has influenced rainfall over Indonesia (Rauniyar & Walsh, 2013; Wang & Hendon, 2007; As-Syakur, et al., 2014).