Strategic Flight Cancellation under Ground Delay Program Uncertainty

Abstract

Under certain capacity constraints, flight operators will strategically cancel flights to improve their overall operating schedule. However, the benefits of such cancellations are best realized if made early, often before any traffic flow rate limitation is imposed. With improved weather forecasts, the need for early action is more apparent; however, determining the correct actions – in this case, flight cancellations – is still challenging. This paper proposes a framework for optimizing an adaptive decision strategy based on the evolution of the forecast uncertainty. Using an ensemble forecast, a scenario tree is generated to highlight both key planning scenarios and the likelihood of these scenarios developing over the forecast horizon. By aligning decision points at the initial and intermediary nodes in the tree, strategies are optimized to capture the timing of relevant decisions with respect to the forecast uncertainty. Using flight cancellation under Ground Delay Program uncertainty as an example, the paper will analyze the recommended cancellations over the forecast horizon, against different predicted scenarios as well as how these recommendations adapt as new forecast information is made available. The results will show that by directly planning for adaptation, improved outcomes can be obtained. KeywordsTraffic flow management; decision support; flightoperator priorities; traffic management initiatives