Ideological Preferences and Evolution of the Religious Cleavage in Chile, 1998–2014

Abstract

This article analyses how religious orientations and ideological preferences have coevolved in Chilean society between 1998 and 2014. On the basis of the premise that people experience religion heterogeneously, we develop four hypotheses that describe possible changes in the association between these two variables. Using data from yearly national probability surveys and multinomial regression models, we obtain two general results. First, we observe a general process of political “dealignment,” whereby the proportion of the population, religious and irreligious, that ceases to identify with ideological positions strongly increases. Second, the magnitude of this dealignment is moderated by religious denomination and frequency of church attendance. Irreligious people have ceased to identify with ideological positions at higher rates than Evangelicals and Catholics, whereas frequently attending Catholics have become more reluctant than nonattending Catholics to abandon their traditional right-wing preferences. These results imply that as Catholics have reduced their size in the population, they have also become more politically heterogeneous. Resumen Este articulo analiza como han coevolucionado las orientaciones religiosas y preferencias ideologicas en Chile entre 1998 y 2014. Bajo la premisa de que las personas experimentan la religion en forma heterogenea, desarrollamos cuatro hipotesis que describen posibles cambios en la asociacion entre estas dos variables. Usando datos de encuestas probabilisticas nacionales y modelos de regresion multinomial, obtenemos dos resultados principales. Primero, observamos un proceso generalizado de “desalineamiento” politico donde la proporcion de la poblacion, religiosa e irreligiosa, que deja de identificarse con posiciones ideologicas aumenta fuertemente. Segundo, la magnitud de este proceso se encuentra moderada por la denominacion religiosa y frecuencia de asistencia a servicios religiosos. Los irreligiosos han dejado de identificarse con posiciones ideologicas mas rapidamente que los evangelicos y catolicos, mientras que los catolicos que asisten regularmente a servicios religiosos son mas reticentes que aquellos que no asisten a abandonar sus preferencias tradicionales de derecha. Consecuentemente, a medida en que los catolicos se han reducido numericamente, tambien se han vuelto politicamente mas heterogeneos.