Study on the Prediction Model of Wildfire in Victoria

Abstract

Wildfires are one of the most devastating natural disasters in Australia. In this paper, we design a model to predict the likely variability of extreme fires over the next decade. Aiming at the forecasting problem, we downloaded the extreme fire event data from NASA for the last 18 years in Victoria, and established a combined prediction model, combining the unbiased gray GM(1,1) model, the BP neural network prediction model optimized by genetic algorithm, and finally the resulting prediction data were approximated by Gaussian function on the data point set using MATLAB toolbox to obtain the temporal and spatial prediction results, and the number of drone combinations under different terrains is simulated by simulation.