MODELING GDP DYNAMICS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EFFECT OF CYCLES: RESULTS OF A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Abstract

In the special economic literature, the existence of economic cycles of various durations is postulated for a long time. In this regard, it should be obvious that their influence is taken into account in the mathematical modeling of GDP. In modern publications, data from the 90s of the last century are used in modeling, therefore, long cycles (Kondratyev, Kuznets) do not have time to pass the full oscillation period, shorter Juglar and Hitchin cycles pass 2-3 and 5-6 times, respectively. An analysis of publications by domestic and foreign scientists on this topic showed that authors often ignore the influence of economic cycles: the initial data are not transformed accordingly or the authors are silent about it; the model does not introduce variables to account for the impact of economic cycles. In addition, researchers consider only business cycles in the dynamics of GDP, carrying out their dating and modeling without taking into account the possibility of overlapping phases of cycles of different duration. The relevance of the study is associated with the need to link the phases of long economic cycles and phases of non-strictly periodic business cycles in modeling and forecasting GDP. The purpose of the article is to analyze and summarize international and domestic experience in studying and modeling cycles in the dynamics of GDP. The article provides an overview and classification of methods for studying the cyclical nature of GDP, presents the results of a review of the main approaches to studying the cyclical nature of Russian GDP. The scientific and practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the results obtained when improving the approaches to the analysis of GDP cyclicality.