Methodical Approach to Food Security Assessment and Forecasting

Abstract

The article presents a methodical approach to food security assessment based on the determination of a comprehensive indicator – efficiency index obtained by aggregation of economic (i e), financial (if) and social indicators. The authors set evaluation criteria for each indicator of agrifood policy effectiveness and thresholds for indicators in the field of food security. This article assesses the effectiveness of agricultural policy for food security based on statistical data on the regions of the Southern Federal District. The research revealed that in 2017 the efficiency index of agri-food policy was equal to 0.8 points, which corresponded to the acceptable level. Practical significance of the presented approach to assessment of agricultural policy effectiveness for food security involves the possibility of using data obtained in the planning and development of economic policy, in order to improve its socio– economic and financial efficiency in the field of food security. The paper substantiates the necessity of integrated accounting and optimization of the ratio of food products manufacturing and consumption in accordance with the specified structure and consumption rates. Problem solution requires the use of cognitive economic and mathematical modeling based on fuzzy production cognitive maps, as well as creation and improvement of methods of intellectual analysis to predict the level of food security.