Study of key risks in the process of formation and implementation of the state science and technology policy in modern Russia

Abstract

Modern state policy is developed and implemented in conditions of high uncertainty: the number of dangers and threats increases not only by type (financial, political, environmental, technological, space, ideological, etc.), but also by the scale of the possible consequences of the occurrence of probable events. The relevance of the study outlined in this article is due to the high degree of uncertainty in the results of scientific and technological development, as well as the practical absence of a unified risk management methodology in the process of forming and implementing state policy in Russia. At the same time, risk management in the field of public administration has long been a practice in Western countries. Currently, it has become the basis for the modernization of public administration in the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States of America, which makes it relevant to study the experience of these countries and its adaptation to national realities. Summarizing the practice of risk analysis in the development and implementation of government programs and policies in Russia, it can be noted that at present, risk analysis is only part of the practice of government bodies. The developers of state programs are limited to listing risks and distributing them in three (high, medium, low risk), and even two groups (high risk, low risk). Such an approach makes it difficult to develop effective measures for managing risks and leveling them, and limits control over the implementation of the program. As a result, program adjustments are usually suggested as risk management measures, but solutions to problems or the use of alternative risk management strategies are not considered. At the same time, by now, risk management is increasingly being incorporated into the activities of state and local authorities, becoming a regular function of government. Certain authorities actively use risk management in their practice (for example, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Government of Moscow), however, the scientific and methodological basis for risk assessment in the Russian authorities is only beginning to take shape. The latter circumstance even more actualizes research in the field of public policy risk management, especially in the field of science and technology. In the course of this study, the authors attempt to substantiate the method of expert assessments of key risks arising in the process of the formation and implementation of the state science and technology policy in modern Russia. The experts were asked to assess the degree of influence of eight hypothetical risks on the processes of formation and implementation of the Russian Federation policy in the field of science and technology or to add their own risk formulation, as well as assess their significance on a 5-point scale, predict the dynamics of the risks presented and specify these risks as applied to priority directions of development of science and technology of the Russian Federation. Expert evaluations and their generalized proposals can be used in the risk management practice of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, as well as the Russian Academy of Sciences. Keywords–state policy, science and technology policy, risks, risk prevention, risk management