A new multivariable grey model and its application to energy consumption in China

Abstract

Based on the nonlinearity of energy consumption systems and the influence of multiple factors, this paper presents a nonlinear multivariable grey prediction model with parameter optimization and estimates the parameters and the approximate time response function of the model. Next, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the nonlinear terms of the novel model to seek the optimal parameters, and the modelling steps are outlined. Then, to assess the effectiveness of the novel model, this paper adopts Chinese oil, gas, coal and clean energy as research objects, and three classical grey forecasting models and one time series method are chosen for comparison. The results indicate that the new model attains a high simulation and prediction accuracy, basically higher than that of the three grey prediction models and the time series method.