Проблемы оперативного прогноза цунами

Abstract

The risk of a tsunami in an operational mode when there is a direct threat of a tsunami is considered. It is shown that the tsunami risk in such events can be controlled, i.e. to influence the severity of the consequences (the amount of damage) in different situations. This mainly concerns the adequacy of the operational (short-term) tsunami forecast. The problem is that the warning services declare not only reasonable general alarms, but also differentiated by the degree of danger for specific areas of the coasts. Ideally, the tsunami alarm should be declared with reasonable advance only at those points where the tsunami is a real danger, and be accompanied by information on the arrival times of the first wave, the maximum wave, their amplitudes, as well as the expected end time of the tsunami (tsunami alarm) in accordance with the definition of the tsunami forecast formulated by IOC UNESCO in 2013. It is shown on the examples of the events of 2006—2014 that the rapid method of operational tsunami forecast, using data on the formed tsunami, obtained in the open ocean, in contrast to the current regulations, will allow the warning services to decide on the announcement of tsunami alarm with reasonable advance only in those settlements where the tsunami is a real threat, and thereby reduce the number of false tsunami alarms, reduce unnecessary damage. The problems of operational tsunami forecast are considered and possible ways of their solution are offered.