Distribution models of the Spanish argus and its food plant, the storksbill, suggest resilience to climate change

Abstract

espanolEl cambio climatico representa un importante factor de riesgo para la supervivencia de las mariposas y de otras especies. En este estudio se han elaborado modelos predictivos que muestran las zonas potencialmente favorables para un lepidoptero endemico de la peninsula iberica, la morena espanola (Aricia morronensis), y las plantas nutricias de sus larvas, los alfilerillos o agujas de pastor (genero Erodium). Se ha utilizado el programa informatico MaxEnt para elaborar modelos de la distribucion de las especies en el presente y en el futuro, bajo dos escenarios de condiciones climaticas, basadas en variables climaticas y topograficas. Los resultados muestran que el cambio climatico no afectara significativamente a la distribucion de A. morronensis, sino que incluso podria favorecer levemente su expansion. Algunas de las plantas podrian sufrir una pequena reduccion de la favorabilidad del habitat. Sin embargo, la interaccion entre la mariposa y sus plantas nutricias probablemente no se vea afectada significativamente por el cambio climatico. EnglishClimate change is an important risk factor for the survival of butterflies and other species. In this study, we developed predictive models that show the potentially favourable areas for a lepidopteran endemic to the Iberian Peninsula, the Spanish argus (Aricia morronensis), and its larval food plants, the storksbill (genus Erodium). We used species distribution modelling software (MaxEnt) to perform the models in the present and in the future in two climatic scenarios based on climatic and topographic variables. The results show that climate change will not significantly affect A. morronensis distribution, and may even slightly favour its expansion. Some plants may undergo a small reduction in habitat favourability. However, it seems that the interaction between this butterfly and its food plants is unlikely to be significantly affected by climate change.