INTEGRATION OF BAYESIAN MODEL AND ADAPTIVE CLUSTERED SAMPLING INTO CONTACT TRACING TO CURB THE SPREAD OF COVID -19 CASES

Abstract

Covid-19 is a communicable virus that causes serious illness (Severe acutepiratory syndrome (SARS)) and middle east respiratory syndrome (MARS)). İts outbreak started in Wuhan, China on December 8, 2019. Fever, cough, tiredness are its signs and symptoms and appear between two to fourteen days after exposure. The severity of COVID-19 can include complications; pneumonia, heart problems, acute kidney injuries. Covid-19 careers should be identified in order to curb the spread of the virus within a population. In this regards, contact tracing is the current technique in use to identify and track the Covid-19 carriers. The aim is to curb the spread of the virus within the population. In order to achieve this goal effectively, appropriate technique is required in the identification of Covid-19 carriers and Modeling. It is known that Covid-19 carriers are hidden, clustered and very difficult to identify in the population. At this point, the Adaptive Cluster Sampling, which is a specialized sampling for identification of hidden and clustered event and Bayesian Model, comes to the practice. Therefore, in this study, Adaptive Cluster Sampling which is capable of tracking hidden and clustered events and Bayesian Model are integrated in contact tracing, and the application on how this technique is used is included