Управління ризиками та створення реєстру ризиків оборонного планування на основі спроможностей

Abstract

A risk-based assessment and risk management system of capability-based defense planning (OPO) is an integral part of this process. This approach is based on the experience of defense planning of NATO member states and the functioning of models, where the place and role of risks, their impact on processes and procedures, both at the planning stage and in the process of implementing its results, are clearly defined. Failure to take risks into account can lead to an incorrect decision to assess the security environment or to identify unrealistic tasks and measures to develop the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (defense forces). The risk management system as an integral model of the OPOV process provides for the following structural components: -\xa0organizational and analytical, including the identification, identification and documentation of risks, as well as a comprehensive assessment of identified risks and the extent of their negative consequences; -\xa0executive and management, which provides for: selection of methods, tools and risk management planning to reduce the likelihood of their implementation and minimize negative consequences; direct risk management during phased EIA procedures; -\xa0the final, in the framework of which the monitoring of the achieved results is carried out, their effectiveness is assessed and the implementation of the planned risk management measures is monitored and the relevant plans are adjusted. The main ways to respond to planning risks are: avoidance, reduction, acceptance or distribution (transfer) of risk. The application of these methods is carried out taking into account a certain acceptable level and acceptability of risk (a certain number of risks that the organizational structure is ready to accept in a certain category). The proposed logical sequence of procedural measures of the system for assessing and managing risks of the defense planning process and the creation of a risk register will allow normalizing and improving the OP process. Creating a risk register based on an algorithm of procedural measures for identifying, identifying, quantifying and qualitatively assessing the degree of influence and minimizing risks will help to avoid mistakes, rationally allocate resources, timely influence the results of working out the OP procedures and increase the efficiency of the defense planning process based on capabilities.