Science and practice for an uncertain future | 2021
Internal Erosion Breach Model Review and Validation
Abstract
Predicting breach erosion processes is essential for the effective risk management of both dams and levees. Following the success of an earlier initiative to assess the performance of breach models for predicting overflow erosion of dams and levees (i.e. the CEATI Dam Safety Interest Group Breach Modelling Project), a new project has been launched to investigate the performance of industry models predicting breach formation initiated through internal erosion. \nThe project was initiated by Electricite de France (EDF) and started mid-2019, with a planned duration of ~2 ½ years. The approach being taken is to: review existing IE models with the most promising few (with potential for industry application) selected for closer analysis; review available laboratory, field and case study data in order to identify a number of data sets that can be used for model performance assessment and validation; invite international organisations to participate in programme of model review, testing and validation; implement a programme of both ‘blind’ and ‘aware’ model testing, with results shared and assessed transparently by the international team; review and conclude as to the capabilities and potential of existing internal erosion models. \nThe overall conclusions from this work will be guidance for industry practitioners regarding the types, availability and likely performance of industry applicable internal erosion breach prediction models. \nThis paper will present details of the programme in April 2020, almost one year into the 2 ½ year overall programme. At this stage, the initial model and data reviews will have been completed, the working group established and the first phase (of three) of modelling and performance review underway.