Crescimento econômico com restrição externa: uma análise da Lei de Thirwall para os períodos FHC e Lula

Abstract

This article sought to evaluate the periods of the FHC and Lula governments, as well as the entire period from 1995 to 2010, in order to investigate to what extent Brazil had its potential of economic growth limited by balance of payments constraints and observable differences between periods. For the empirical analysis, we adopted the econometric cointegration procedure, used to estimate the price and income elasticities of the import demand of the periods, resulting in a relaxation in the external constraint in the Lula period, compared to the FHC government. The results indicate that although external constraints decreased during the Lula administration compared to the FHC government, there is evidence that they continued to play a relevant role in Brazil s long-term growth rate.