A 41-Gene Pair Signature for Predicting the Pathological Response of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation

Abstract

Background and Purpose: Pathological response status is a standard reference for the early evaluation of the effect of neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) on locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. Various patients respond differently to nCRT, but identifying the pathological response of LARC to nCRT remains a challenge. Therefore, we aimed to identify a signature that can predict the response of LARC to nCRT. Material and Methods: The gene expression profiles of 111 LARC patients receiving fluorouracil-based nCRT were used to obtain gene pairs with within-sample relative expression orderings related to pathological response. These reversal gene pairs were ranked according to the mean decrease Gini index provided by the random forest algorithm to obtain the signature. This signature was verified in two public cohorts of 46 and 42 samples, and a cohort of 33 samples measured at our laboratory. In addition, the signature was used to predict disease-free survival benefits in a series of colorectal cancer datasets. Results: A 41-gene pair signature (41-GPS) was identified in the training cohort with an accuracy of 84.68% and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.94. In the two public test cohorts, the accuracy was 93.37 and 73.81%, with AUCs of 0.97 and 0.86, respectively. In our dataset, the AUC was 0.80. The results of the survival analysis show that 41-GPS plays an effective role in identifying patients who will respond to nCRT and have a better prognosis. Conclusion: The signature consisting of 41 gene pairs can robustly predict the clinical pathological response of LARC patients to nCRT.