Artificial Intelligence Combined With Big Data to Predict Lymph Node Involvement in Prostate Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Abstract

Background A more accurate preoperative prediction of lymph node involvement (LNI) in prostate cancer (PCa) would improve clinical treatment and follow-up strategies of this disease. We developed a predictive model based on machine learning (ML) combined with big data to achieve this. Methods Clinicopathological characteristics of 2,884 PCa patients who underwent extended pelvic lymph node dissection (ePLND) were collected from the U.S. National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015. Eight variables were included to establish an ML model. Model performance was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots for predictive accuracy. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and cutoff values were obtained to estimate its clinical utility. Results Three hundred and forty-four (11.9%) patients were identified with LNI. The five most important factors were the Gleason score, T stage of disease, percentage of positive cores, tumor size, and prostate-specific antigen levels with 158, 137, 128, 113, and 88 points, respectively. The XGBoost (XGB) model showed the best predictive performance and had the highest net benefit when compared with the other algorithms, achieving an area under the curve of 0.883. With a 5%~20% cutoff value, the XGB model performed best in reducing omissions and avoiding overtreatment of patients when dealing with LNI. This model also had a lower false-negative rate and a higher percentage of ePLND was avoided. In addition, DCA showed it has the highest net benefit across the whole range of threshold probabilities. Conclusions We established an ML model based on big data for predicting LNI in PCa, and it could lead to a reduction of approximately 50% of ePLND cases. In addition, only ≤3% of patients were misdiagnosed with a cutoff value ranging from 5% to 20%. This promising study warrants further validation by using a larger prospective dataset.