Predicting Progression of COVID-19 Infection to Prioritize Medical Resource Allocation: A Novel Triage Model Based on Patient Characteristics and Symptoms at Presentation

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 global pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to health care systems all over the world. The speed of the viral spread results in a tsunami of patients, which begs for a reliable screening tool using readily available data to predict disease progression. Methods: Multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed to develop and validate a triage model. Patient demographic and non-laboratory clinical data were recorded. Using only the data from Zhongnan Hospital, step-wise multivariable logistic regression was performed, and a prognostic nomogram was constructed based on the independent variables identifies. The discrimination and calibration of the model were validated. External independent validation was performed to further address the utility of this model using data from Jinyintan Hospital. Results: A total of 716 confirmed COVID-19 cases from Zhongnan Hospital were included for model construction. Men, increased age, fever, hypertension, cardio-cerebrovascular disease, dyspnea, cough, and myalgia are independent risk factors for disease progression. External independent validation was carried out in a cohort with 201 cases from Jinyintan Hospital. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.787 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.747–0.827) in the training group and 0.704 (95% CI: 0.632–0.777) in the validation group. Conclusions: We developed a novel triage model based on basic and clinical data. Our model could be used as a pragmatic screening aid to allow for cost efficient screening to be carried out such as over the phone, which may reduce disease propagation through limiting unnecessary contact. This may help allocation of limited medical resources.