Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on Rainfall and Rice Production: A Micro-Level Analysis

Abstract

Monsoon fluctuation due to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a reflective influence on rice production, which is the major food grain crop in India. The impact of ENSO on the spatial variability of summer monsoon rainfall was analyzed from 1950 to 2018 and that on Kharif rice production for the period of 1998–2016. It was clear from the analysis that ENSO had varied influences on rainfall and rice production over different rice-growing districts of Karnataka. During El Nino (strong, moderate, and weak) years, southwest (S-W) monsoon rainfall was below normal in all the districts of Karnataka, wherein the highest negative deviation from normal was recorded in the Mysore district (−21.43%). In contrast, the rice production was higher in 15 districts out of 25, and the deviation from normal ranged from −39.73% in Bidar to 42.11% in Gulbarga district. During the La Nina (strong, moderate, and weak) years, S-W monsoon rainfall was above normal in 12 districts in which Bidar and Bengaluru urban districts have shown the highest positive deviation (19.93 and 19.82%, respectively). However, except for Udupi, Dakshina Kannada, Bidar, Davanagere, and Hassan districts, all the other major rice-growing districts have shown a positive deviation in rice production with the highest deviation of 62.39% in Tumkur district. Additionally, correlation coefficient values indicated the influence of southwest monsoon rainfall on Kharif rice production during El Nino years with a major contribution from September month rainfall. This kind of ENSO impact analysis on spatial rice production could be useful for formulating the farm-level site-specific management, planning, and policy decisions during ENSO periods in advance.