Modeling Streamflow Enhanced by Precipitation from Atmospheric River Using the NOAA National Water Model: A Case Study of the Russian River Basin for February 2004

Abstract

This study aims to address hydrological processes and impacts of an atmospheric river (AR) event that occurred during 15–18 February 2004 in the Russian River basin in California. The National Water Model (NWM), a fully distributed hydrologic model, was used to evaluate the hydrological processes including soil moisture flux, overland flow, and streamflow. Observed streamflow and volumetric soil water content data were used to evaluate the performance of the NWM using various error metrics. The simulation results showed that this AR event (15–18 February 2004) with a long duration of precipitation could cause not only deep soil saturation, but also high direct runoff depth. Taken together, the analysis revealed the complex interaction between precipitation and land surface response to the AR event. The results emphasize the significance of a change of water contents in various soil layers and suggest that soil water content monitoring could aid in improving flood forecasting accuracy caused by the extreme events such as the AR.