Sea Ice Climate Normals for Seasonal Ice Monitoring of Arctic and Sub-Regions

Abstract

The climate normal, that is, the latest three full-decade average, of Arctic sea ice parameters is useful for baselining the sea ice state. A baseline ice state on both regional and local scales is important for monitoring how the current regional and local states depart from their normal to understand the vulnerability of marine and sea ice-based ecosystems to the changing climate conditions. Combined with up-to-date observations and reliable projections, normals are essential to business strategic planning, climate adaptation and risk mitigation. In this paper, monthly and annual climate normals of sea ice parameters (concentration, area, and extent) of the whole Arctic Ocean and 15 regional divisions are derived for the period of 1981–2010 using monthly satellite sea ice concentration estimates from a climate data record (CDR) produced by NOAA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Basic descriptions and characteristics of the normals are provided. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis has been utilized to describe spatial modes of sea ice concentration variability and how the corresponding principal components change over time. To provide users with basic information on data product accuracy and uncertainty, the climate normal values of Arctic sea ice extents (SIE) are compared with that of other products, including a product from NSIDC and two products from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The SIE differences between different products are in the range of 2.3–4.5% of the CDR SIE mean. Additionally, data uncertainty estimates are represented by using the range (the difference between the maximum and minimum), standard deviation, 10th and 90th percentiles, and the first, second, and third quartile distribution of all monthly values, a distinct feature of these sea ice normal products.