A Novel Hybrid Fuel Consumption Prediction Model for Ocean-Going Container Ships Based on Sensor Data

Abstract

Accurate, reliable, and real-time prediction of ship fuel consumption is the basis and premise of the development of fuel optimization; however, ship fuel consumption data mainly come from noon reports, and many current modeling methods have been based on a single model; therefore they have low accuracy and robustness. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid fuel consumption prediction model based on sensor data collected from an ocean-going container ship. First, a data processing method is proposed to clean the collected data. Secondly, the Bayesian optimization method of hyperparameters is used to reasonably set the hyperparameter values of the model. Finally, a hybrid fuel consumption prediction model is established by integrating extremely randomized tree (ET), random forest (RF), Xgboost (XGB) and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods. The experimental results show that data cleaning, the size of the dataset, marine environmental factors, and hyperparameter optimization can all affect the accuracy of the model, and the proposed hybrid model provides better predictive performance (higher accuracy) and greater robustness (smaller standard deviation) as compared with a single model. The proposed hybrid model should play a significant role in ship fuel consumption real-time monitoring, fault diagnosis, energy saving and emission reduction, etc.