Forecasting and Analysis Tools for Regional Industries’ Dynamics

Abstract

The article is devoted to the author’s approach and tools for regional industries’ modeling, analysis and forecasting, following the general idea of splitting time series into four components: trend, cycles, seasonal component, and residuals. However, the authors introduce new approaches, models, metrics, and identification algorithms, and the components’ interaction structures, having included the analysis of 12 industries in 82 regions of Russia. The models and forecast accuracy were tested on 3–12 month forecasts, thus proving their high accuracy. Therefore, the article proposes not only new systematic econometric tools but a methodology for decision making, developed to provide stable and adequate characteristics of complex non-linear evolutionary dynamics of Russian regions.