Assessing Influential Factors on Inland Property Damage from Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclones in the United States

Abstract

The Gulf and southeast coastal communities in the United States are particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Coastal areas generally receive the greatest economic losses from tropical cyclones; however, research suggests that losses in the inland zone can occasionally be higher than the coastal zone. Previous research assessing the inland impacts from tropical cyclones was limited to the areas that are adjacent to the coastal zone only, where losses are usually higher. In this study, we assessed the spatial distribution of inland property damage caused by tropical cyclones. We included all the inland counties that fall within the inland zone in the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Additionally, different factors, including meteorological storm characteristics (tropical cyclone wind and rain), elevation, and county social-economic vulnerability (county social vulnerability index and GDP) were assessed to measure their influence on property damage, using both ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. GWR performs better than the OLS, signifying the importance of considering spatial variations in the explanation of inland property damage. Results from the tristate region suggest that wind was the strongest predictor of property damage in OLS and one of the major contributing factors of property damage in the GWR model. These results could be beneficial for emergency managers and policymakers when considering the inland impacts of tropical cyclones.