Analysis of the Makran Coastline of Iran’s Vulnerability to Global Sea-Level Rise

Abstract

The SE coast of Iran is of great economic and environmental importance. Global climate change affects this coastline through sea level rise (SLR), compounded by a decrease in sediment budgets in coastal areas. This study developed a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the SE coast of Iran using satellite, instrumental and field data. Eight risk variables were defined: coastal slope, regional coastal elevation, mean tidal range, mean significant wave height, rate of relative sea-level change, rate of shoreline change, environmental sensitivity and socio-economic sensitivity. The coast was divided into 27 segments based on geomorphic, environmental and socioeconomic traits. Coastal segments were categorized based on their vulnerability to each risk factor using a CVI. The resulting maps highlighted the vulnerability of each coastal segment to SLR. Approximately 50% of the coast is comprised of mostly rocky shores, which are less vulnerable to SLR. Approximately 33% of the coastal length, including sandy beaches, tidal flats and mangrove forests, were determined to be highly vulnerable to SLR. Approximately 12% of the coastline was determined to be moderately vulnerable. Population centers and infrastructure were ranked as highly-to-moderately vulnerable to SLR. This study highlighted the high vulnerability of low-lying areas, such as lagoons and mangroves, in the western part of the Iranian coast of Makran. Proper coastal management and mitigation plans are essential in the future to protect coastal societies and environments.