Flood Risk Assessment of Subway Systems in Metropolitan Areas under Land Subsidence Scenario: A Case Study of Beijing

Abstract

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural events that severely damage the ground and inundate underground infrastructure. Subway systems in metropolitan areas are susceptible to flooding, which may be exacerbated when land subsidence occurs. However, previous studies have focused on flood risk evaluation on regional/watershed-scales and land subsidence monitoring in plains, instead of on subway flood risk evaluation and how land subsidence aggravates the flood risk in subway systems. Using the proposed risk indicators and field survey data, we present a method assessing the flood risk of metropolitan subway systems under a subsidence condition based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) combined with a geographic information system (GIS). We use the regional risk level within the 500 m buffer zone of the subway line to depict the flood risk of the subway system. The proposed method was used to evaluate the flood risk of the Beijing subway system. The results show that the flood risks of the Beijing subway show a ring-like distribution pattern—risk levels decreasing from the central urban area to the suburbs. Very high and high risks are mainly located within third and fourth ring roads, accounting for 63.58% (29.40 km2) and 63.83% (81.19 km2) of the total area. Land subsidence exacerbated the Beijing subway system’s flood risk level—the moderate to very high risk increased by 46.88 km2 (16.33%), indicating that land subsidence is an essential factor affecting the flood risk level of subway systems. In addition to enhancing flood warnings, future subway flooding could be reduced by elevating the height of the stations’ exit (entrance) and installing water stop plates and watertight doors. This study is of great significance for flood warning and prevention in the Beijing subway system; it provides a theoretical basis for flood risk evaluation in other metropolitan areas.