Temporal-Spatial Variations and Regional Disparities in Land-Use Efficiency, and the Response to Demographic Transition

Abstract

China has undergone rapid industrialization and urbanization over the past 40 years. In this process, as a large country with a vast territory and a large population, China’s population development and land utilization have been greatly affected and undergone dramatic changes. In this paper, we mainly discuss the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of land-use efficiency in China from 1991 to 2016 and the regional disparities and explore the impacts of demographic transition on land-use efficiency by employing a STIRPAT model. In terms of space, China’s land-use efficiency has significant agglomeration distribution characteristics and regional inequality, and the degrees of agglomeration and differentiation have gradually become enhanced over time. Our study on the influences of demographic transition on land-use efficiency found a Kuznets curve relationship between the transition of population size and land-use efficiency, as well as between the income level transition and land-use efficiency. Especially, land-use efficiency first increases up to the population threshold of 10,611.877 × 104, then efficiency decreases as the population grows. The overall average population in the whole country is 4117.753 × 104, which is smaller than the identified threshold. Interestingly, the factors influencing land-use efficiency also showed very significant regional disparities. In the eastern region, there is a U-curve relationship between the population employed in secondary industries (ES2) and land-use efficiency. Land-use efficiency decreases down to the ES2 threshold of 343.674 × 104 for the eastern region, whereas the overall average ES2 is 874.976 × 104, indicating that this region has reached the turning point where land-use efficiency will improve as the population employed in secondary industries increases. Meanwhile, the increase in the human capital level was significantly positively correlated with land-use efficiency in the eastern region. For the central region, the transition of the urban–rural population structure (measured by the urbanization rate) significantly increased land-use efficiency. In addition, the results of panel estimation showed a Kuznets relationship between the population employed in tertiary industries (ES3) and land-use efficiency in the western region. Land-use efficiency increases up to the ES3 threshold of 455.545 × 104, and then decreases with an increasing population employed in tertiary industries, whereas the overall average ES3 in the western region is 415.97 × 104, which is smaller than the identified threshold. Policymakers could use these findings to inform rational suggestions with a sound scientific basis regarding the promotion of land-use transition.