Decomposition Analysis of Factors that Drive the Changes of Major Air Pollutant Emissions in China at a Multi-Regional Level

Abstract

The regional emission reduction determines the national emission reduction for one country, and the differences in regional economic characteristics may result in regional differences in air pollutant emissions (APEs). In this regard, this study constructs a regional contribution index of different factors through an extended LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) method and investigates regional differences in factors driving the changes of China’s major APEs (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5). It reveals that the regional emission efficiency effect was a key inhibitory factor on APEs, which was more obvious in the eastern and northern regions. The regional energy intensity had greater inhibitory effects on SO2 and NOx than on PM2.5, and these inhibitory effects were more obvious in the eastern region. The regional population structure promoted APEs for northern, southern, northeastern, and eastern regions, and inhibited APEs for central, southwestern, and northwestern regions. The regional relative income had a slight effect, which curbed APEs for northern, eastern, southern, and northern regions. The national economic growth effect was the key factor in promoting APEs, which was obvious in eastern and northern regions, followed by southern, central, and southwestern regions. Policy implications are put forward based on empirical results.