Influence of SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.1.7, Vaccination, and Public Health Measures on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting disease COVID-19 has killed over 2.6 million people as of 18 March 2021. We have used a modified susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) epidemiological model to predict how the spread of the virus in regions of France will vary depending on the proportions of variants and on the public health strategies adopted, including anti-COVID-19 vaccination. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7, which was not detected in early January, increased to become 60% of the forms of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the Toulouse urban area at the beginning of February 2021, but there was no increase in positive nucleic acid tests. Our prediction model indicates that maintaining public health measures and accelerating vaccination are efficient strategies for the sustained control of SARS-CoV-2.