A Modeling Study on Vaccination and Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Italy

Abstract

From the end of 2020, different vaccines against COVID-19 have been approved, offering a glimmer of hope and relief worldwide. However, in late 2020, new cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started to re-surge, worsened by the emergence of highly infectious variants. To study this scenario, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed model with lockdown measures used in our previous work with the inclusion of new lineages and mass vaccination campaign. We estimate model parameters using the Bayesian method Conditional Robust Calibration in two case studies: Italy and the Umbria region, the Italian region being worse affected by the emergence of variants. We then use the model to explore the dynamics of COVID-19, given different vaccination paces and a policy of gradual reopening. Our findings confirm the higher reproduction number of Umbria and the increase of transmission parameters due to the presence of new variants. The results illustrate the importance of preserving population-wide interventions, especially during the beginning of vaccination. Finally, under the hypothesis of waning immunity, the predictions show that a seasonal vaccination with a constant rate would probably be necessary to control the epidemic.