Simulating Diurnal Variations of Water Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen in Shallow Minnesota Lakes

Abstract

In shallow lakes, water quality is mostly affected by weather conditions and some ecological processes which vary throughout the day. To understand and model diurnal-nocturnal variations, a deterministic, one-dimensional hourly lake water quality model MINLAKE2018 was modified from daily MINLAKE2012, and applied to five shallow lakes in Minnesota to simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) over multiple years. A maximum diurnal water temperature variation of 11.40 °C and DO variation of 5.63 mg/L were simulated. The root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of simulated hourly surface temperatures in five lakes range from 1.19 to 1.95 °C when compared with hourly data over 4–8 years. The RMSEs of temperature and DO simulations from MINLAKE2018 decreased by 17.3% and 18.2%, respectively, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency increased by 10.3% and 66.7%, respectively; indicating the hourly model performs better in comparison to daily MINLAKE2012. The hourly model uses variable hourly wind speeds to determine the turbulent diffusion coefficient in the epilimnion and produces more hours of temperature and DO stratification including stratification that lasted several hours on some of the days. The hourly model includes direct solar radiation heating to the bottom sediment that decreases magnitude of heat flux from or to the sediment.