Modelling and Forecasting Cyts Stock Prices Using Garch Model

Abstract

As one of the emerging industries that have developed rapidly in recent years, tourism has attracted the attention of many investors. As a brand leader and standard-setter in China s tourism industry, CYTS s practice and exploration in tourism + has a guiding role that cannot be ignored in the development of our country s tourism industry. Therefore, this paper takes the CYTS stock price as the research object, predicts the stock price through the GARCH model to provide investors with investment reference, and finds: (1) CYTS stock return sequence shows the characteristics of peak and fat tail, and the finding of ARCH effect resulting in using GARCH as forecasting model. (2) In the short term, the results of stock prices predicted by the GARCH model are relatively close to the actual stock trends. (3) When analyzing stock trends in the long-term, it is necessary to consider major events at home and abroad, economic policy changes, etc., and the GARCH model can be used for short-term forecasting.