Changes in the temperature of the Guadalajara metropolitan zone, México under climate change scenarios / Cambios en la temperatura de la zona metropolitana de Guadalajara, México bajo escenarios de cambio climático

Abstract

In the present study analyzed the average and extreme temperatures observed and simulated by regional models in the Guadalajara Metropolitan Zone (GMZ), Jalisco, Mexico. Data of daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures of stations in the GMZ during the period 1971-2000 have been used to study the observed changes in the average and extreme temperatures. In addition, an assessment of future scenarios for the average and extreme temperatures associated with the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases was performed using simulations of a PRECIS regional climate modeling to create the climate for present (1971-2000), and future projections for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Observational analysis of stations suggests warming through increased intensity and frequency of hot events and also with the decrease in the frequency of cold events. More than 35 to 76% of the stations have a tendency to the decrease in the number of cold events and near 39 to 64% of the stations show a growing trend in the hot events. The percentage of stations to global warming through the rates of intensity of the highs maximums, lowest minimum temperatures is 37 to 70% and the 30 to 65% of the stations, respectively. Observational analysis for the GMZ as a whole also shows similar results. Anomalies to the average and extreme temperatures per month during the period of data show an increase (decrease) in the frequency of hot (cold) events for every month. In general, PRECIS simulations under both scenarios A1B and A2 indicate warm events increase and decrease of the cold extreme events towards the end of the 21st century. Both show similar patterns, but the scenario A2 shows slightly lower magnitudes of projected changes. Temperatures are likely to increase in the year, but it is expected that changes in summer to be more prominent.