[The correlation study on human respiratory syncytial virus daily incidence and meteorological parameters in the main urban area of Chongqing from 2009 to 2019].

Abstract

Objective: To explore the relationship between the daily incidence of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) and meteorological parameters in the main urban area of Chongqing. Methods: This study took 3 107 children hospitalized with acute lower respiratory tract infections from June 2009 to June 2019 in department of Respiratory medicine, Children s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University (CHCMU). Nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA) was collected on the day of admission to detect HRSV and common respiratory virus; combined with the meteorological data of the main urban area of \u200b\u200bChongqing during the same period, the correlation and distribution lag nonlinear model analysis of the daily incidence of HRSV and meteorological parameters were carried out. Results: Among 3 107 children, HRSV positive accounted for 34.53% (1 073 cases), the age was 6 (3, 13) months, and males accounted for 64.31% (690 cases). The daily incidence of HRSV was negatively correlated with minimum temperature (r=-0.220, P<0.001), maximum temperature (r=-0.221, P<0.001), average temperature (r=-0.221, P<0.001) and precipitation (r=-0.052, P<0.001), and positively correlated with sunshine time (r=0.011, P<0.001) and average relative humidity (r=0.095, P<0.001). Compared with the reference temperature (20 ℃), when the lowest temperature of 6-10 ℃ lags for 4-8 d, the RR value of HRSV was 1.11-1.14, and when the lowest temperature of 5-19 ℃ lags for 5 d and 2-19 ℃ lags for 10 d, the RR values were 1.02-1.14 and 1.00-1.03. When the cumulative lag is 5, 10, 15 and 21 d, compared with the reference temperature (20 ℃), the RR (95%CI) values at the lowest temperature of 10.4 ℃ were 1.93 (1.08-3.46), 3.49 (1.64-7.45), 5.00 (2.01-12.46) and 6.69 (2.18-20.48); the RR (95%CI) values of the lowest temperature of 22.1 ℃ were 0.87 (0.77-0.98), 0.77 (0.66-0.90), 0.74 (0.62-0.89) and 0.68 (0.55-0.85). In the cumulative effect, compared with the reference temperature (20 ℃), the gender stratification showed that the maximum RR (95%CI) values of the lowest temperature for boys and girls under different lag days were 7.24 (1.84-28.51) and 2.19 (1.07-4.46), the age stratification showed that the maximum RR (95%CI) values of the lowest temperature for children<6 months old and children ≥6 months old under different lag days were 4.72 (1.05-21.23) and 11.98 (1.70-84.35). Conclusions: In the main urban area of Chongqing, the daily incidence of HRSV in children is correlated with climatic parameters. Among them, the lowest temperature has a delayed and cumulative effect on HRSV infection. 6-10 ℃ has a greater impact on the incidence of HRSV when the lag is 4-8 days. The effect has a more obvious impact on the incidence of HRSV in boys and children ≥ 6 months.