Problems of dynamic modeling of the commissioning of residential buildings in the post-Soviet countries

Abstract

The article is devoted to the description of procedures of economic and mathematical modeling of trends in the field of housing construction taking into account the peculiarities of various countries of the post-Soviet space. The results of analysis of well-known scientific publications on forecasting the dynamics of housing market indicators are presented. It has been shown that most domestic and foreign scientists as the most effective methods of modeling these indicators consider methods of analyzing time trends, in which polynomials of high (in some cases up to the fourth degree) order are used to approximate the available retrospective data. Other common approaches to solving this problem are the use of short-term forecasting based on moving average algorithms, as well as the use of the SARIMA model, which takes into account the trend and seasonal wave. The article shows that these methods do not fully take into account the profound changes in the construction complexes of the post-Soviet states caused by the significant structural transformation of their socio-economic systems. The authors proposed to use econometric models based on regressions with dummy variables to model the main indicators of housing construction, taking into account the complex structure of the external and internal environment of national construction complexes. It has been shown that in a significant number of practical situations, a fairly simple but effective way to take into account the components of the time series of the indicators under consideration in one complex model is to use the model of change in growth (fall) when choosing the time of the beginning (end) of a crisis situation as a characteristic point. The results of modeling the main indicators of housing construction for various countries of the post-Soviet space showed that the proposed model when constructing the medium-term forecast allows taking into account the situation component of the analyzed time series.