Outbreak Prediction of COVID-19 in India Using ARIMA and Prophet Model with Lockdown and Unlock

Abstract

Coronavirus becomes cerebral pain every day throughout the world. Many cases of coronavirus continue to grow, directly irritating human daily exercises and devastating the economy of nations. The Indian Government announced a one day Janta curfew on March 22, 2020. After three days on March 25 2020, 19 days of lockdown were declared in the country for mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four lockdowns and six unlock periods were implemented to control the pandemic, but lockdown is the major obstacle to the economy. In unlocking period government open the economic activity stepwise to boost the economy. Coronavirus infection is under control during a lockdown time, but the infection becomes pandemic unlock 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 period. In Unlock 4.0 and unlock 5.0 coronavirus cases growth goes down but in unlock period 6.0, a sudden spike in confirmed cases. It is due to the festival session and relaxation provided by the Government in the unlock 6.0. The research aimed to forecast the trend towards the COVID-19 pandemic in India with data from June 01, 2020, by applying the ARIMA and Prophet model. Based on several presumptions, the findings of the analysis have shown that, after the unlock-up period is completed, it has been predicted that India s pandemic is expected to decrease by approximately about December 2020 and that it will crest around within the initial weeks of March 2021.