Modern Economy | 2021
Can Purchase Restrictions Really Limit House Prices
Abstract
This article uses the data of residential commercial \nhousing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities from 2007 to 2017, and on \nthe basis of controlling the covariates that can affect housing prices on the \ndemand side and the supply side. The method of double difference is used to \nstudy the two rounds of purchase restriction policies, that is, in 2010, the first round of purchase restriction policies \npromulgated by local governments from 20111 and the second round of purchase \nrestrictions promulgated in 2016 have their respective effects on residential \ncommercial housing prices and price growth rates. The regression results of the \nbenchmark fixed-effects model show that the implementation of the first round \nof purchase restriction policies in cities can significantly reduce the price \nof residential commercial houses, and the long-term effects of the purchase \nrestriction policies are relatively weak. Because there may be a certain \nreverse causality between the implementation of the purchase restriction policy \nand the city’s housing prices, this paper introduces the lag value of the \nexplained variable as the instrumental variable of the purchase restriction \npolicy, and uses the dynamic panel instrumental variable method to perform \nregression analysis. In addition, there may also be the problem of sample \nselection bias, that is, for the difference between the treatment group and the \ncontrol group, this article first uses the propensity score matching method to \ndetermine the appropriate covariate, and then matches the treatment group to \nthe appropriate control group, And finally perform double-difference regression \nanalysis to reduce the bias of sample selectivity. In the analysis of \nheterogeneity, this paper divides the samples according to the different conditions \nof housing prices and housing price growth rates, and verifies whether there is \na difference in the impact of the purchase restriction policy on the cities \nwith excessively high housing prices, rapid housing prices, and high and rapid \nhousing prices. At the \nsame time, we will return to cities in the eastern, central and western regions \nto explore whether there are regional differences in the effect of the purchase \nrestriction policy. Finally, through a series of robustness tests, the \nrobustness of the conclusions of this article is demonstrated.