Blessing in disguise: long-run benefits of urban disasters

Abstract

The Saint-Elisabeth’s Flood (19 November 1421) was one of the most devastating fl ood disasters in Dutch history. Dozens of cities and villages in the south-western part of the country were swept away due to an unprecedented heavy storm, with a death toll of thousands of people. It is noteworthy that several cities which were completely destroyed (e.g., Dordrecht) later on played an important role as economic, cultural and political centres in the Netherlands. Apparently, urban recovery after disaster is by no means an exception and may even be a more universal phenomenon. It is a well-known fact from ecology that forest fi res may strengthen the long-run stability and diversity of woods and ecosystems. Apparently, an environmental disaster may lead to a better and more sustainable outcome for an ecosystem in the long term. Similar positive fi ndings may be recorded on external shocks in human-made or social systems. For example, the large infl ux of refugees (Huguenots, Jews) to the Low Countries in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries prompted the rise of fl ourishing cities (e.g., Antwerp, Amsterdam). Countries in a war may sometimes be better off in the long run than countries without a war, as witnessed by the post-World War II Wirtschaftswunder of Germany. Social systems apparently comprise an abundance of responsive or creative talent which makes these systems highly resilient and adaptive. In human history it appears that disasters may create challenges or threats which may be turned into new opportunities. This ‘challenge and response’ mechanism of human societies (see Toynbee 1934–61) provides an unprecedented degree of learning and adaptation behaviour which may lead to relatively stable social systems. Economies and societies in motion may be more resilient and robust than others in a static standstill position. Coping with dynamics is also the core message of a Schumpeterian ‘creative destruction’ conceptualization of the evolution of human-made systems. Dynamics not only refers to a simple time-varying trajectory, but may