Quantifying recent lake level changes in Patagonia (Argentina and Chile): Back to the future?

Abstract

Increasing precipitation in eastern Patagonia (Argentina) have been documented following years with strong El Niño (cold) events using historical and meteorological data. Quantifying changes in modern lake levels allow determining the impact of rainfall variations while contributing to anticipate the evolution of lacustrine systems over the next decades with expected fluctuations in ENSO frequencies. Laguna Carrilaufquen Grande is located in the intermontane Maquinchao Basin, Argentina. Its dimension fluctuates greatly, from 20 to 55 km 2 water surface area and an average water depth of 3 m. Several well-preserved gravelly beach ridges witness rainfall variations that can be compared to meteorological data and satellite images covering the last ~50 years. Our results show that in 2016 lake level was the lowest of the past 44 years whereas the maximum lake level was recorded in 1985 (+11.8 m above the current lake level) in a position 1.6 km to the east of the present shoreline. A five-years moving average rainfall record of the area was calculated smoothing the extreme annual events and correlated to the determined lake level fluctuations. The annual variation of lake levels was up to 1.2 m (e.g. 2014) whereas decadal variations related to humid-arid periods for the interval 2002 to 2016 were up to 9.4 m. These data are consistent with those from other monitored lakes and, thus, our approach opens up new perspectives to understand the historical water level fluctuations of lakes with non-available monitoring data.